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The Efficiency Trap: China Won The Cost Curve, The US Owns The Cash Register
Beyond Token Prediction: The Architectural Case for Truth-Grounded AI
The Day After AGI: Davos 2026 and the Intelligence Transition
The Complexity Transition: Why Human Intelligence Must Redefine Itself in the Age of Artificial Cognition
The Efficiency Trap: China Won The Cost Curve, The US Owns The Cash Register
Everyone's arguing about who's winning AI. Meanwhile, OpenAI made $20 billion and lost $14 billion. Chinese startups burn cash even faster. The uncomfortable truth? Neither side knows how to make money from this yet. They're just losing it differently.
The Bifurcation Thesis: Why There Is No Middle Ground In Digital Innovation
The most broadly diffused technologies in history have produced the most concentrated returns. This is not a bug—it is the system. You cannot half-build a platform. You cannot partially create a network effect. The middle ground is a strategic dead zone.
The Company That Watched Its Competitor Fail—And Did Worse
Volkswagen spent 5 years and billions of euros building software that never worked, then paid $5.8B to license Rivian's. The federated structure that enabled twelve brands systematically prevented building the unified system software-defined vehicles require.
AI Labs: The Great Filtration
SSI, Thinking Machines, World Labs, Humans&—each represents a different bet on AI's future. But ambition isn't the variable that matters. Scarcity is. The Great Filtration will separate those who control something defensible from those who don't.
The Thermodynamic Turn: From Pure Prediction to Prediction Embedded in Optimization
The most significant capability gains in AI aren't coming from bigger models—they're coming from embedding prediction inside optimization. Generation is becoming a proposal step. The thermodynamic turn is already underway.